The mechanical and psychological effects of electoral systems. Its parties that choose electoral systems or duvergers. Theoretical comparisons of electoral systems european. This is particularly true in the case of countries using systems that even if they do not use the plurality vote, do not fully incorporate pr either. Duvergers law duverger, 1959 deals with the role of electoral systems on party proliferation. A mathematical proof of duvergers law caltechauthors. Duvergers law and the size of the indian party sytem core. Duvergers law draws from a model of causality from the electoral system to a party system. Furthermore, interregion and interstate variations in the size of districtlevel party systems make it difficult to generalize about the application of duverger s law to the indian case. In political science, duverger s law is a principle which asserts that a plurality rule election system tends to favor a two party system. If the parties divide the vote 5050, each would win 50% of the seats. Duvergers law duverger, 1959 deals with the impact of electoral systems on party proliferation, and we almost always think about electoral competition at the parliamentary level in terms of competition among political parties but we are not only interested in how many parties there are, but also in how the party space is organized. Recently, various scholars cox 1997, palfrey 1989, myerson and weber 1993 have answered this question by articulating conditions under which.
A regression discontinuity test of strategic voting and. His chief contributions there deal with what have come to be called in his honor duvergers law and duvergers hypothesis. Mar 22, 2005 a general model develops the argument and presents the concept of behavioral. In political parties english edition 1954, the french political scientist maurice duverger proposed a law and a hypothesis about the relationship between the number of parties in a country and its electoral system. Duvergers law and the study of electoral systems citeseerx. This article has a central organizing theme, which is the way duvergers law can be taken to be the canonical statement of what electoral systems as. The mechanical and psychological effects of electoral. Maurice duverger is arguably the most distinguished french political scientist of the. His book, political parties, first translated into english in 1954, has influenced both the party politics literature which continues to make use of his typology of party organization and the electoral systems literature. Plurality voting creates a barrier to entry against new third parties. The theory that elections in political systems like the united states tend to favor the two major parties, making it very hard for a third party to win. Pdf its parties that choose electoral systems or duvergers law.
The law was that the simple majority, single ballot system favours the two. Duverger claims that electoral systems have systematic effects hence the well. Highly proportional electoral systems such as israel and belgium feature elections with systematically greater entry and exit of parties than highly disproportional electoral systems such as the united states and mexico. Since its first publication in 1951, duverger s political parties has influenced an entire branch of political science devoted to the study of the political consequences of electoral laws. This article presents, discusses and tests the hypothesis that it is the number of parties what can explain the choice of electoral systems, rather than the other way round. The study concludes that a narrow focus on electoral rules is inadequate, and that a more comprehensive set of explanatory variables is needed to explain the. Estimations based on a regression discontinuity design in the assignment of singleballot and dualballot runoff electoral systems in brazilian mayoral races indicate that, in accordance to duvergers law, singleballot plurality rule causes voters to desert third placed candidates and. Since its first publication in 1951, duvergers political parties has influenced an entire branch of political science devoted to the study of the political consequences of electoral laws.
Duverger s law draws from a model of causality from the electoral system to a party system. This article views electoral systems and electoral system change from an institutional perspective. A proportional representation pr system creates electoral conditions that foster the development of many parties, whereas a plurality system marginalizes smaller political parties, generally resulting in a twoparty system. Predicting the effective number of parties in plurality and pr systems parties minus issues equals one. In political science, duverger s law holds that pluralityrule elections such as first past the post structured within singlemember districts tend to favor a twoparty system, whereas the double ballot majority system and proportional representation tend to favor multipartism. View the article pdf and any associated supplements and figures for a period of 48 hours.
This essay examines the two propositions known as duverger s law and duverger s hypothesis, both concerned with how electoral institutions shape party systems. The connection between electoral laws and party systems, washington university, st. Questions concerning the relationships between electoral systems, proportionality, and the number of political parties in a party system often summed up in terms of duverger s law, or variants. Duvergers law and the size of the indian party system rekha diwakar abstract duvergers law postulates that singlemember plurality electoral systems lead to twoparty systems. But the distal effect of the electoral law on the party system is shown to be complex and multifaceted, not direct and deterministic. This article has a central organizing theme, which is the way duverger s law can be taken to be the canonical statement of what electoral systems as institutions do and why the choice of electoral institutions is important. So duvergers law suggests that electoral systems may differ in. Pdf and any associated supplements and figures for a. This paper presents an equilibrium model of elections in which this stylized fact emerges a logical implication of rational strategic voting behavior by individuals in a large heterogeneous electorate. Since its publication more than a halfcentury ago in political parties 1951, hundreds. I will refer to the first proposition as the law and to the second proposition as the hypothesis. Consistent with the contamination thesis, this analysis suggests three additional national. Duvergers law and the study of electoral systems request pdf.
A famous stylized fact in comparative politics, duverger s law, is that electoral systems based on single ballot winnertakeall plurality voting will produce bipartisan competition. This essay examines the two propositions known as duvergers law and duvergers hypothesis, both concerned with how electoral institutions shape party systems. This essay examines the two propositions known as duvergers law and duvergers hypothesis, both concerned with how. Keywords duvergers law electoral rules party entry and. Duvergers law postulates that singlemember plurality electoral systems lead to twoparty systems. States with proportional representation those that award seats to political parties based on the total portion of the popular vote they receive tend to develop a multi. This study tests the latter hypothesis through analysis of a comprehensive dataset covering indian parliamentary elections in the period 19522004. Extending duvergers law when parties become blocs nyu law.
Most of the literature about electoral systems is based on maurice duvergers 1951 intuitions. Duvergers laws political science bibliographies cite this. Already existing political parties tend to choose electoral systems that, rather than generate new party systems by themselves, will crystallize, consolidate or reinforce previously existing party configurations. Duvergers law and the study of electoral systems ken benoit. Oct 05, 2012 according to duvergers law, the number of major political parties in any given republicandemocratic country is determined by the electoral structure of that country. Economists should recognize importance of barriers to entry, which may be crucial determinants of longrun profit. There are several examples of countries that have changed their electoral systems over time riker 1982, cox 1997. Since its publica tion more than a half century ago in polit ical parti es 1951, hundr eds of. According to duvergers law, plurality voting systems lead to twoparty competition. An essay on the history of political science volume 76 issue 4 william h. The perceptions, calculations, strategies, and behavior of party elites play a crucial intervening role between the electoral law and the overall shape of the party system.
You can choose to listen to the podcast in the following youtube video or read the transcript below. Olaws are like cobwebs,whi ch may catch small flies but which let wasps and hornets br eak throu gho n jonathan swift. Grofman, blais and bowler, duverger s law of plurality voting. Grofman, blais and bowler, duvergers law of plurality voting. Oct 28, 2014 preliminary evidence suggests the distinction between sub. Citeseerx document details isaac councill, lee giles, pradeep teregowda. A dynamic duvergers law jean guillaume orandf and vikram maheshri y october 10, 20 abstract electoral systems promote strategic voting and a ect party systems. Duvergers law and the size of the indian party system.
First, under what conditions does tactical voting in singlemember plurality systems really lead to local bipartism. Thomas fujiwara department of economics, princeton university, usa. The impact of national electoral rules on district competition article pdf available in european journal of political research 541 november 2014. Rethinking duvergers law uci school of social sciences. His chief contributions there deal with what have come to be called in his honor duverger s law and duverger s hypothesis. Duvergers laws political science bibliographies cite. How does it affect the number of political parties, and is it responsible for the uss twoparty system. Duvergers law of plurality voting the logic of party competition. The impact of national electoral rules on district competition. Duvergers law and the size of the indian party sytem. The discovery of this tendency is attributed to maurice duverger, a french sociologist.
The cube law attempts to predict the percentage distribution of seats won in parliament from the percentage distribution of the electoral vote in a twoparty system. This perspective lends itself to a rational actor framework that highlights the strategic choices made by voters and political elites. Mar 30, 2006 since its first publication in 1951, duverger s political parties has influenced an entire branch of political science devoted to the study of the political consequences of electoral laws. Furthermore, interregion and interstate variations in the size of districtlevel party systems make it difficult to generalize about the application of duvergers law to the indian case. A dynamic duvergers law jean guillaume forand and vikram maheshriy february 19, 2014 abstract. Request pdf duvergers law and the study of electoral systems since its first publication in 1951, duvergers political parties has influenced an entire branch of political science devoted to. A proportional representation pr system creates electoral conditions that foster the development of many parties, whereas a plurality system marginalizes smaller political parties, generally resulting in a. Abstract this paper uses exogenous variation in electoral rules to test the predictions of strategic voting models and the causal validity of duvergers. Duvergers law among students of electoral systems, there is no betterknown, more investigated, nor widely cited proposition than the relationship between plurality electoral laws and twoparty systems known as duvergers law.
Preliminary evidence suggests the distinction between sub. Using a new data set that includes elections since 1946, the authors reexamine duvergers theory and find that modern tests largely bear out his expectations when properly specified and interpreted. Abstract this paper uses exogenous variation in electoral rules to test the predictions of strategic voting models and the causal validity of duvergers law. In political science, duvergers law holds that pluralityrule elections such as first past the post structured within singlemember districts tend to favor a twoparty system, whereas the double ballot majority system and proportional representation tend to favor multipartism. Citeseerx duvergers law and the study of electoral systems. So duverger s law suggests that electoral systems may differ in their. Duvergers law asserts that plurality elections favour twoparty competition. I construct a theoretical model in order to consider how preelection polls serve to inform the electorate about the relative chances of the candidates and how that information acts over time to decrease the support of the trailing candidate.
Although duvergers law remains a controversial proposition and its implications and validity continue to be questioned, countries often consider changes to their existing electoral systems. Duverger 1951 proposed that plurality rule leads to bipartyism and proportional representation leads to multipartyism. This paper investigates the dynamics of the wasted vote phenomenon and duvergers law. It discusses the changes in electoral systems and even the remarkable lack of change in electoral systems worldwide. Riker skip to main content accessibility help we use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. The most comprehensive dataset and test of these notions to date, encompassing 219 elections in 87 countries since the 19th century, are presented. This analysis also extends current research by specifically estimating the mechanical and strategic modifying effects of electoral institutions. Duvergers laws converse the converse of duvergers law is not always valid. Existing scholarship regards india as an exception to this law at national level, but not at district level. Duvergers law of plurality voting the logic of party. According to duvergers law, the number of major political parties in any given republicandemocratic country is determined by the electoral structure of that country. In our latest video and podcast, ces directors eric sanders and aaron hamlin discuss just that. Predicting the effective number of parties in plurality and pr systems parties minus issues equals one, european journal of political research, 1985, 341 52. Electoral systems can be divided into three general types.
This is one of two hypotheses proposed by duverger, the second stating that the double ballot majority. Duvergerin which the unique winner is the can didate. However, many results of national parliamentary elections. Duverger s law suggests a nexus or synthesis between a party system and an electoral system.
A regression discontinuity test of strategic voting and duvergers law. Duvergeros law among student s o f elect oral systems, there is no betterkno wn, more investiga ted, nor widely cited prop osition than the relationshi p between plural ity electo ral law s an d twopart y systems known as duverg eros law. Electoral systems, political parties, and representation in russia pittsburgh. These propositions distinguish among three kinds of electoral systems, which, although far. Its parties that choose electoral systems or, duvergers. Pdf this article presents, discusses and tests the hypothesis that it is the number of parties what can explain the choice of electoral systems.
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